Thursday, May 15, 2014

Many Government Bonds Yielding Less Than United States

I can't listen to a talking head, bond manager, strategist or seemingly anyone without hearing about how "Rates can only go higher from here". When in reality THEY CAN go lower! In fact, when you look around the world, on a relative basis, THEY SHOULD!

Look at that list and tell me the United States should pay more on their debt then all those countries. France is borrowing at 1.77% people, FRANCE! You have Japan borrowing at a rate 76% lower than the US with more than twice the debt. Now all this doesn't mean the united states SHOULD trade lower, but it's either that or others SHOULD trade higher because on a relative basis, much is out-of-whack. And those calling for much higher rates in the U.S should realize that basket cases like Italy and Spain are trading at 3.1%!

Interestingly enough, despite the relative attractiveness of US rates you have nearly EVERY "unconstrained" bond fund avoiding US duration risk at all costs, meanwhile loading up on risky credit. How often is the herd correct?

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