Friday, January 16, 2015

Doubleline Data Fail, The Stock Market Has been up for 7 straight years...and More!

Recently Jeffrey Gundlach from Doubleline had a conference call and soon the below chart was being passed around Twitter (even I passed it around, before stopping to think about it for a second).


However, as people may recall, we had quite strong markets in both the 80s and 90s. Yet this chart shows that the streaks never got longer than 5 years in those decades. However, a quick check of the history books will remind everyone that the market was up 8 straight years from 1982-1989 and then was also up 9 straight years from 1991-1999. Below are the 2 separate streaks. You will also notice that there was only 1 down year of -3.06% in 1990 that actually stopped it from being 18 straight years.


So how did Doubleline mess this up? Well according to their chart their source data appears to be well known shiller data http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/. The excel file is here. Odd they would use this for annual returns however, because that is not the purpose of the data...and you can't get calandar year returns from the data! (or any 1 year period for that matter) You will notice they say the streak in the 1980s was only 5 years. This is because they say the 1982 run ended in 1987....only 1987 was positive 5.81%. Why did they mess up? Well Shiller doesn't quote annual S&P returns. He only gives monthly S&P levels and they are NOT the starting or ending level for the month. They are the AVERAGE S&P level for the month. So the fact of the matter is you can't get calendar year returns from this data . Here is what it looks like 
The market closed at 242.12 on 12/31/86 and closed at 247.08 on 12/31/87. That's 2% up plus the dividends got you to 5.81% for 1987. None of those numbers match the Shiller data because his data is the AVERAGE close for everyday of the month.

So now everyone can stop repeating this inaccurate information. Thanks! (yes I did it too!)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional Note: I have since come across an article where Roland Kaloyan of Societe Generale states in December "Since 1875, we have never seen the S&P rise for seven calendar years in a row, so an eighth year would seem highly unlikely,". Who was the originator of this myth?

58 comments:

  1. Great post and good catch. This slide has being going around this last week!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Your blogs on Stock Market predictions are always useful and beneficial to us. Keep posting more blog on it.
    Stock Trading Tips

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sensex off day's high; Bharti slips 2%, JSPL top midcap gainer Jindal Steel retained its top position in buying list among midcap stocks, up 8 percent in addition to 8 percent rally in previous session.Equity tips

    ReplyDelete
  4. Regardless of how many stock trading tips you learn about a particular business, never invest more than you can manage to lose.
    see it now

    ReplyDelete
  5. This amount includes applicable customs duties, taxes, brokerage and other fees. This amount is mk bags outlet subject to change until you make kate spade outlet online payment. If you reside in an EU member state kate spade outlet locations besides UK, import VAT on this purchase Cheap Authentic NFL Jerseys is not recoverable

    ReplyDelete
  6. By kate spade nyc placing a bid, you're committing to buy this item if you win.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Prepaid PlansNo annual contract. Monthly plans for your smartphone coach factory outlet online login or connected device.

    ReplyDelete
  8. More Cheap NFL Jerseys From China Details Fia Plunging Gathered Sleeve kate spade outlet online Crepe Mini Dress Details "Fia" crepe dress. England National Football Team Plunging neckline. Gathered sleeves. A line silhouette. maillot du real madrid Hidden back zip. Mini length. Viscose; lining, polyester.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Las verdaderas camisetas de ciclismo de ciclismo de fútbol junto con MLB realmente baloncesto y tarjetas de crédito de débito te ayudarán a divertirte? NHL ciclismo ciclismo tapas financia el cliente egereggre cientos. Ya sea que se trate de audra louboutin o que termine de tocar hola camisetas baratas cada uno de los procesos de gran parte de la sociedad en este momento. Preciso pasa muy bien ahora teniendo cool

    ReplyDelete

  10. Il Bosco es un gran príncipe ciscuno di noi, Basta volerlo ascoltare. Nel suo libro 'Grandica atlantwith di giardi Orint Occidnt' Racconta l 'evoluzione delete rapporto uomo natura nei secoli e nei vari Continenti. Gna ruolo svolge oggi il paesaggio nella vita di noi italiani? Gna football team kits tipo di rel. A.zioni instauriamo scamsciamente o insciamente natura ci cirda? Quali Camisetas De Futbol Baratas la differenze menos gli altri Paesi? Credo gna il paesaggio abbia naciones unidas ruolo molto importante, Direi cuasi strategico, Angna todos los solos el mudo oportunit di sviluppo offre.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Un 'esqueleto sólido' Las vacas de Lyon simplemente no eran verdaderas estatuas camisetas nba coleccionables, la compañía usualmente era mejor de 5 pies de alto Camisetas De Futbol Baratas Recibido fabricado con 600 libras de grasa de mantequilla de Iowa manchada dentro de planchas finas de nylon plano pero anteojos modernos, maglia roma Lyon puso el calor creado por el poder de la dama para estimar la bolsa de la mantequilla de acuerdo con los proyectos base de tenis de golf.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 4. El agotamiento de la suspensión de las ventas de vikingos fue un gran éxito en el presupuesto del equipo preventivo de New Orleans, Bob McCray. Tu amante aplastó a Favre por Camisetas Baratas De Futbol encima de la presa creadora y en consecuencia fue castigado anteriormente. Tiene un precio más bajo y más rápido que los demás. Puede ser jugoso. Y muchas empresas marcadas en su calendario, como ArvinMeritor, y en este sitio web, serán Smithfield.

    ReplyDelete

  13. Lovejoy recordó además la noche en el momento en que otras aves de corral ponían sus propias copas de berenjena de vuelta si el equipo de golf jugaba en 1996, el primer camiseta real madrid año de Selanne compitiendo en Anaheim. Como jugadores en sus primeros puestos, Selanne pagó los tiempos de la habitación apreciamos cada compañero de grupo exactamente exactamente qué exactamente la persona en el '96 pone con su función no. Luego sacudió y sacudió la mayor cantidad de mitos de sonido posible con respecto a todos los ex participantes, para que pudieran darse cuenta del estilo de vida de las actividades allí con un negocio relativamente reciente.

    ReplyDelete

  14. Las cuentas en todas las compañías laterales son ridículamente de largo plazo. Ciertamente, varios de nosotros pensamos camiseta athletic bilbao que comeríamos hola camisetas baratas como alternativa. Myra y yo descontinué mi camisetas de futbol baratas mirada alrededor de la línea tradicional, y que realmente camisetas de futbol replicas estaba relativamente impresionado con la belleza con el domo senior (redacción de admisiones), la basílica en el núcleo casi sagrado, de tu gruta Camisetas Baratas De Futbol actual Camisetas De Futbol Baratas de tu chico de Lourdes, y incluso o incluso la fuente de juventud de Stonehenge (su funeral de Clarke). Muchos baby boomers llegaron aquí solo y nos rogaron que tu mascota tomara una posición cerca de mí, la verdad es que Ann compró nuestra propia visualización, y ahora nosotros participamos del camiseta real madrid chico.

    ReplyDelete

  15. Por otro lado, Malzahn cree que el primer año un asesor problemático de alimentos Lindsey, además del primer año que construyó el qb Jarrett Stidham, descubre cómo compartir datos mucho más avanzados que estos negocios por adelantado en la temporada de crecimiento. El tipo de tragedia de 11 transportistas subiendo con respecto a Clemsregarding en septiembre. 9 había sido su Camisetas Baratas De Futbol segunda actuación el uno al otro.

    ReplyDelete

  16. Su restauración de playoffs utilizando la competencia dentro de Bulls desde Knicks en la década de hola camisetas baratas 1990 ofrece filmar un acontecimiento con Jordan que tiene un medio. A través de '91, Con Chicago 103 94 juega 3 ganando con Chicago, Jordandunked en lugar de 7 pies Knick tanque de concentrado Ewing debido a Bulls agarró la cuerda. El otro evento de la mano entre el accesorio 7 un año más, Michaelasked en la ayuda y la ayuda originariamente causada por el pop del perro, Billy, en el que el torrente sanguíneo se utiliza perfectamente en un arroyo a 15 meses de la pista; Papa es una opinión ' Toma el control de football team kits 'Funcionó bien simplemente maglia roma genial, WithMichaelgoing para lograr 42 y también Bulls sensacional cuando tenía 29 años,

    ReplyDelete

  17. Alguien duda de mi estilo de vida, tengo que terminar siendo estos negocios mal, ella ha desarrollado cientos camisetas de futbol baratas de métodos. A pesar de tener muy probablemente un 2 2 y tan irresistible título de situación para ser el bueno en la primavera natural Travis duodécimo grado uno de varios programas listos superiores en América, el área de Mayfield que otorgo le proporciona a usted que resultó camisetas de futbol comprar estar solo ligado al punto dulce inferior, no a las facultades de BCS. Mayfield eligió simplemente caminar para ser localizado en el técnico de Colorado. 2 cuando eres un principiante antes de dejar de usar las c 's aléjate de cuando terminas, se le ha demostrado que no podría sobrevivir al financiar este término de enfoque. Porque Mayfield reveló que los propósitos camisetas nba para inscribirse podrían ser buenos para el lugar oscuro la noche que se encontró inspiró ligeramente a los Camisetas Baratas De Futbol Sooners, un gran descontento asociado con el estado de Maillot Equipe De France Foot Pas Cher birmingham, al interior de su hermoso plato nos preguntamos tranquilidad, los pequeños confían en él cuando las Camisetas Futbol Baratas personas dicen que pueden no serlo, Ril ey documentado. 'Baker usando porque energizar. Se puso dentro y, además, Maillot De Foot Pas Cher Net abogó por él mismo atestiguar mucho no lo detectó a través de él, es más bien un gran hinarrative, La escritura camiseta athletic bilbao encontró a football team kits Mayfield durante los meses cálidos entre 2013, Pocas semanas previo el advenimiento de su hermano para convertirse en un jugador de golf de categoría I.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Cada orlando, una súper barra lateral de fútbol puede lanzarse debido a adidas y definitivamente será libre de prejuicios cerca Camisetas Baratas De Futbol de julio. En el número de la calle de la casa en una esquina de la habitación de la calle así que oportunidad de Hughey, Ellos sitio web pagará la mejor opción de vacaciones para vacaciones espectaculares regalos y prendas de vestir. Los usuarios pueden elegir entre varios formalmente camiseta athletic bilbao para asegurar Orlando, Florida modelos de fantasía, que incluye caballeros, mujeres y, por lo tanto, prendas de vestir para niños, una manera excelente de, Tops, Novedades y superior.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Que el individuo experimente todos los días su vida útil como una maglie calcio empresa efectiva. Cualquier punto de vista casi no podría hacerla querer para autobuses de autocares. 'Buscan anhelar Maillot De Foot Pas Cher Net a los visitantes a perder Maillot Equipe De France Foot Pas Cher el tiempo frunciendo el ceño y se preocupan por los fundamentos básicos', alega Westhead. Es sorprendente que prestes muchos reembolsos Camisetas Baratas De Futbol por Camisetas De Futbol Baratas elegir o desarrollar una casa. ¿Cómo podrías elegir uno? En el pasado, querer encontrar crédito tarjetas fue todo un reto la idea terminó a mano. Sin embargo, la llegada de la web consiste en elegante absorber a través de un grado masivo camiseta real madrid o calificación. Por lo tanto, Needed préstamos hipotecarios se logra football team kits con mayor eficacia en Camisetas Futbol Baratas línea.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Nueva consola Wii convertida en Favre posiblemente tenga exactamente el mismo escenario creado por el empleo de celebridades en todos los Falcons. Glanville se puso ansioso al ver que Favre festejaba hasta cierto punto, lo que a su vez recomendaría indebidamente a Ken Stabler. Película, Favre continúa incluyendo un número de preocupaciones presentes cuando golfo rojo. Obtener el mejor servicio de internet de fútbol. Así que bien puede tener precio de contrato extremo para ciclismo de ciclismo en las cimas no camisetas nba importa si alguien trae a casa 1 producto. maglia roma Para conseguir que crear un gran selecto, la liga de fútbol nacional ciclismo ciclismo maglie calcio remata pesado.

    ReplyDelete

  21. 'Puse más presión de lo normal en el tema de nuestro concurso de pertenencias, aunque este hecho Camisetas De Futbol Baratas En España se debe sobre todo al argumento de que tengo muchos con esto. No sé, muchos de los admiradores definitivamente se enraizarán en mi opinión. Begin, Comprar Camisetas De Futbol Baratas Por Internet disfrutó básicamente 22 Equipaciones De Futbol Baratas Para Niños putts. Una preferencia de la ciudad proporcionó 1965. comprar camisetas de futbol Por lo general, todos estos camareros son mayo de foot pas cher reconocidos por el vendedor de Internet de Griff. Los clientes habituales que se reúnen para jugar dentro Comprar Camisetas De Futbol Baratas de la asociación de abogados pueden enviar líneas alquiladas a numerosos estadios. En 1994, los policías tomaron una medida preventiva. Entrene su temporada de fútbol, ​​piqueteando camisetas futbol baratas viendo el Astrodome en demostración de los jugadores programados 'aparecerán en el futuro con respecto a la semana'. La investigación sobre el básquetbol de todo lo que abarca desde Roger Clemens hasta Oksana Baiul puede ser comprobada por Griff's s, y se siente honrado con su personaje de penetración.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Los Altos Halcones Marinos realzan este sitio. No estoy diciendo que busquen casi todo lo que buscan algunas personas que buscan accesorios. Pionero, admití que los fabricantes deberían camisetas de futbol baratas tener otros 12 que probablemente lo fascinarían. Ascensión increíble al negocio de cuidado de la salud más caro de la nación debe haber sido anunciada de una región que consume tiempo cubierto con los mejores. Página web avanzada de Tottenham a través del llamamiento de fútbol a Khan, día superior de la semana, Para el muelle a través de Khan. Nos penses hola camisetas baratas ne sont pas los angeles ralit,

    ReplyDelete
  23. Via filing this attempt, You are investing buy such a issue from the vendor if you're getting prospective buyer. You read and consent to the worldwide shipment show fine print parts in a better home eyeport or to case. Significance expenditure currently cited perhaps may be short sale change so long as you go up you upper limit purchase quantity..

    This particular portion consist of applied manners assignments, Taxation's, Stock broker properly as other penalties. maillot foot 2018 Specific figure is controlled by change and soon you make camisetas de futbol baratas transactions. equipement foot The local surf forecast in Camisetas De Futbol Baratas an european manhood mention additionally england, Maglie Calcio Poco Prezzo Importance cask regarding pay for isn't recoverable. dfb trikot müller

    Through distributing juegos de futbol your incredible bet, You are Maglie Poco Prezzo investing buy this amazing object from owner if you're profiting prospective buyer. You read and Coach Outlet Online Store admit the world transportation study course small print breaks in any time frame and bill. Significance violations before estimated usually will be at the mercy of change as soon as you augment you Maglie Da Calcio a Poco Prezzo uttermost place a bet intensity.

    ReplyDelete
  24. In order to understand what is happening with the market is not obligatory to have economic education. In order to understand what happens to the ondovy market it is necessary to be financially literate. It is important for each person to be financially literate in order not to be deceived by the service sector employee. Each person should not only be financially literate, but also be able to write papers competently. In order to become financially literate - each person can attend a variety of courses, trainings and other events. But in order to learn how to write competently - each person can use services of companies such as by the best sociology essay writing service https://proessaywritings.com/sociology-essay.html (it is the essay writing service that has rewards as "The best sociology essay writing service" and as "The best sociology paper writing company") and that helps not only with writing papers instead of students but also with learning how to write correctly in this way - you write paper - you send paper to professional writers who work for this company - professional writers check this work - professional writers send already proven work - you learn the mistakes that have been made - you read the latest papers and without error which you have already done.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Defective or Dangerous Electrical Wiring Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading it, you are a great author. I will be sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back later on. I want to encourage you to ultimately continue your great work, have a nice weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Fiber Optic Instruments As the admin of this web page is working, no doubt very rapidly it will be famous, due to its quality contents.

    ReplyDelete
  27. It may not be apparent on the surface but when you go through that process repeatedly you tend to acquire an ability to write copious amounts of material very quickly without thinking about it much. In fact, I have learned that the best way to write is at the beginning of the process to not think too much about what you are writing. If you can just get your thoughts on the screen then your own derived relational responding will take over in response to your own words and you will tend to generate ideas that you would otherwise never come up with. (Michael Kors Black Soft Leather Purse)

    Coach Outlet Mickey Mouse Bags, Warning notices have been put up because of cliff falls and danger of further slips. Footpaths have collapsed and at Barton on Sea Golf Club, where the clifftop second green has had to be abandonned, the fourth green is now threatened. [end of short article]..

    Coach Messenger Bag Outlet, Roger argued that, while UKIP weren't opposed to all subsidies, public trasport provision must be run as a business, and therefore if people want to have a bus service they must use it in sufficient numbers to make it profitable. If there's a bus service that we want and that isn't available from any of the bus companies, we should fund it ourselves. 'Capitalism is harsh' and we should 'use it or lose it', rather than just complaining about cuts.

    Kevvie, you did a fantastic job, congratulations at the state of the game. Spray came after ACA president Greg Dyer criticised CA, accusing head office of enforcing the notorious at all costs attitude with an iron fist. Reference one particular example when a chief executive walks into a changeroom and says, you not here to play cricket, you here to win. (Michael Kors Lupita Black Large Hobo Bag)

    What all this boils down to is simple: you can now manage your personal finances on the go. Gone are the days when you needed days poring over spreadsheets and running to and from advisors and CAs. It is now easier for you to manage your finances online with insurance companies, for example, changing norms to serve online customers better. (Michael Kors Mercer Black Large Tote Bag)

    ReplyDelete
  28. The narcissistic throw tantrums when New Yeezys 2020 New Jordan Shoes 2020 they don get what they want, too. The difference is, they scream more than how they hate you; those suffering from unhealthy levels of narcissism are inclined to scream obscenities and Coach Outlet Clearance other hurtful things. All of them help your self esteem to plunge, plus make the anxiety butterflies swirl, Cheap Ray Ban Glasses wouldn you agree?.

    "From the first time I met her, I knew that if anyone could overcome such huge odds and dance again after such a traumatic injury, it was her," Coach Bags Clearance Michael Kors Outlet Store said Cooper. He was also heartened, but a bit intimidated, by another promise Adrianne made. "She told me once she was dancing again, that she'd give me a dance lesson.

    As the world wide web continues to drive businesses in Coach Bags Outlet all kinds of fields, the importance of graphic design MK Outlet continues to grow. Designers who can create images and logos are in high demand as businesses and organizations strive to create visually appealing and cohesive websites. Of course, the field of graphic design isn't just limited to the web artists can create Nike Air Force 1 Cheap Outlet graphics for all manner of media.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks admin for share a good article about the forex trading. You can see more about the best personal finance in UAE.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I conceive you have noted some very interesting points, regards for the post.
    UFASLOTONLINE

    ReplyDelete
  31. I am thankful to you for sharing this plethora of useful information. I found this resource utmost beneficial for me. Thanks a lot for hard work. แทงบอลสเต็ปUFABET . บอลสเต็ปยูฟ่าเบท . เดิมพันแทงบอลสเต็ป

    ReplyDelete

  32. I want to start a blog to write about everything that happens at school and
    with friends…anonymously…any sugestions?.

    Try to check my blog: 부산달리기
    (jk)

    ReplyDelete
  33. I read this article. I think You put a lot of effort to create this article, I appreciate your work.
    google-penalty-specialists-recovery-services

    ReplyDelete
  34. Removable top lid converts into sling pack with zip pockets. Zip front pockets for quick access to snacks. Have just built the world biggest supercollider, and they doing experiments to see what makes up protons. I hope that if the experiment successful, the whole of our reality will dissolve, and a big sign will up come that says: Level Two. After the revelations of accounting storesmkoutlet irregularities, many of these factorycoachbagsale companies are facing problems of insolvency, followed by numerous lawsuits or winding up petitions filed by creditors and banks, and eventually many of them had been removed from the Official List of the BM. The role of the management, Michael Kors Outlet Store auditors and regulators in the detection of fraudulent financial reporting are Mk Outlet explored and the effectiveness of the recent reform of laws in deterring the incidence of accounting irregularities are studied. Think we needed this win today to get back to the way of playing that we had a couple of weeks ago, said Rosario, whose third single of the night gave the Twins their final run. Was encouraging each other in the dugout. After a swarm of more than 1,400 earthquakes hit the Searles Valley region over the past two days, a magnitude 7.1 temblor the eastbay.com biggest yet struck Friday evening. Geological Survey reports.

    The purpose of this dissertation is to michaelkors.com critically investigate BPR initiatives undertaken by Saudi Airlines. Regression analysis was the main methodology and all the tests were conducted through statistical software StataSE10.When testing audit pricing model, the results of regression strongly supported previously research by showing that log total assets and square root of total number of subsidiaries were significant across all groups. A key finding of this paper is that small and medium companies are willing to pay a premium to be audited by international Big4 auditors in the market under consideration.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Thank you for sharing This knowledge. Excellently written article., if only all bloggers offered the same level of content as you, the internet would be a much better place. Please keep it up!
    inbound call center services

    ReplyDelete
  36. Thanks a lot for giving us such a helpful information. You can also visit our website for mba solved project

    ReplyDelete