Friday, August 9, 2013

Emerging Markets Price-to-Book Ratio & Forward Returns

Here is an interesting look from J.P Morgan regarding the Price-to-Book ratio on Emerging Markets.

They then look at how those various Price-to-Book ratios relate to forward 1-year returns....In short, it looks good.

Although I don't like that the 1-year forward returns only use 1999 to today. Why not use the same data as the first graph back to 1993? Also, I don't tend to think any valuation metric is a reliable short-term (1 year) timing indicator. However, Rob Arnott has also been pointing out that longer-term forward returns (10 years) are also looking pretty tempting using a Shiller PE ratio. All I know is, anything looks good 'relative' to the US right now.


  1. Where can we see the P/B ratios by Emerging Market country?

    1. Easiest way would be to just look at the individual country ETFs at a place that provides P/B ratios (like or many others). To save you the trouble I made that info here. However, I left off Hungary since it doesn't have an ETF (yet).

    2. iShares shows much higher P/B ratios than you do. For example, you show EEM as 1.36, but their website shows it as 3.10 as of 7/31/2013.
      How do you explain this discrepancy?

    3. Ya, odd but it's clear the Ishares website is screwed up...also says PE is 18.5?? Umm no. I took my data from Morningstar workstation which was as of 8/9/13 but you can go direct to MSCI which has a fact sheet (PDF) for the MSCI emerging markets index as of 7/31/13. Also took a snapshot of that here. It shows that as of 7/31/13 P/B was 1.49 and PE 11.9. Far cry from 3.1 P/B and 18.5 PE according to Ishares website....interestingly Ishares website is the only place I can find giving those odd figures for the ETF -- if that was correct for the ETF it would officially be the worst tracking ETF I can think of lol.

  2. Would you please review and comment on this country ranking analysis?
    Seems legit, but it is beyond my comprehension. Also, it varies dramatically from your results.
    Thank you.

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