- 10% chance return will be less than 2%/yr over the next 10 years
- 10% chance return will be greater than 10%/yr over the next 10 years
- Expected return over the next year (from 2/17) = 6%
- 10% chance return will be negative over the next year (from 2/17)
- 10% chance return will be greater than 10% over the next year (from 2/17)
Now none of those may seem too crazy. Except I think it is borderline delusional to believe there is only a 10% chance of a negative return over the next year considering current valuations. But if you want to see some truly wacko predictions, take a look at the extreme answers given in the "minimum" and "maximum" response column for each question.
A few of my favorites
- Someone thinks there is only a 10% chance the return over the next year will be LESS than 70%!?!
- Someone thinks the average annual return over the next 10 years will be 60%/yr!?!
- Someone thinks there is only a 10% chance the average annual return over the next 10 years will be LESS than 70%/yr!?!
So what we have there is either some truly crazy CFOs or some CFOs that need to take classes in reading comprehension before completing the next survey.
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