Friday, December 16, 2011

GDP Estimates 2012 Vs. 2008 and More Economic Consensus Groupthink

The Wall Street Journal recently released it's December Survey of Economists. This is where you generally get to hear about the current consensus groupthink. In the survey, 54 economists gave their projections for GDP in 2012 (among many other things). I decided to compare this years projections for the year ahead to what these great minds saw coming in December 2007 (the month the last recession started). Does anything about this strike anyone else as quite similar........

Now just maybe if they would have added a negative sign to their 2008 forecasts they would have been pretty spot on (considering GDP for the year finished down -2.5%). The December 2007 survey included 51 "economists"....yet not 1 came up with a negative GDP projection. Here we are now in 2011, with the European situation, the rest of the developed world including the US and Japan soaked in debt, and China trying to build ghost cities until someone rises from the dead, and not one of the 54 "economists" is willing to project anything lower then 1.3%? Interesting......

What else do they have to say?

With the unemployment rate right now at 8.6% (due to massive labor force shrinkage) the consensus is things will essentially stay as is. Funny, anyone know what the unemployment rate was in December of 2007? 5.0%. And what was the consensus for the end of 2008? 5.1%. In reality it tuned out to be 9.9% and yet not one of the economists predicted anything above 5.6%. Nice work guys.

Some more on unemployment....

Yikes, they can't predict one year ahead and now their being asked about the unemployment situation 3 years out? Anyone know how I can get in touch with James F. Smith from Parsec Financial Management who made that 5.0% projection? Because I would gladly pull a Mitt Romney on him and bet him $10,000 that's not gonna happen!

Alright, What about Treasury Rates?

Looks like they are calling for rates to rise from the current level of 1.85% to 2.75% (we can be sure this is due to their more optimistic view of the overall economy and not worries of the US ever expanding debt situation). In Dec of 2008 when it was 4.1% consensus said it would move up slightly to 4.28% (the yield ended 2008 down to 2.25%)

So what about their views on the probability of a recession in the US in the next 12 months?

23% and nobody puts the odds at higher then 40%? What about the Eurozone? Surely they must realize the Eurozone is already in a recession -- After all, the OECD already declared as much (and they are never the first to spot anything)


Really? You can't even get them to admit "yes" on a Eurozone recession which is clearly already happening? Well, what should we expect.......this is what they thought in July 2008 (7 months after the last US recession already started).

Ok so maybe we should interpret anything in the 50% range as their version of certainty LOL!

Will at least one member leave the Eurozone? 48%? Guess that should mean it's pretty near certain!

That may be about the biggest dispersion of views you will see on a subject from these groupthinkers.

Ah the joys of "economist" forecasts!

47 comments:

  1. Interesting observation.

    When you have time could you post a correlation between the markets / sectors and time after the end of a war. Although the Iraqi conflict has not been as large as Vietnam or WW II and has been tapering for sometime it has been a significant financial drain. TIA.

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Anonymous I might consider putting something together but I think this "war" has been of a much different nature. I agree it has been a financial drain....which is why using an arbitrary date of when governments 'claimed' something was over might not be the most useful way to go about it. It might be more useful to look at the increase or decrease in spending and the resulting correlations.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Heya just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let
    you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly.
    I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.... My Web : Jasa SEO Indonesia Murah Terbaik dan Profesional

    ReplyDelete
  4. My own government has not been a clearest speaker; they generally trailed out of, mispronounced labels, and had his / her lunchtime although dictating their notes. Since we cleared plus recycled archival footage, preceding mp3s could often hemorrhage in the latest dictation. Several several hours afterwards, I would ultimately use a word for word transcription, we next had to update right into a very last, error-free survey. Jual Boneka Wisuda | Jaket Bomber Pria

    ReplyDelete
  5. Your blog is meaningful, I have read many other blogs but your blog has persuaded me, I hope in the coming time you will have more great blogs to share with readers. Thank you so much for share.
    Also visit here to download
    Nova Launcher Prime
    Nova Launcher Prime Apk

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yikes, they can't predict one year ahead and now their being asked about the unemployment situation 3 years out? Anyone know how I can get in touch with James F. Smith from Parsec Financial Management who made that 5.0% projection? Because I would gladly pull a Mitt Romney on him and bet him $10,000 that's not gonna happen! cotton bed sheets , bed comforters , gul ahmed bed sheets sale , bridal bed sheet set , king size bedspreads , cotton gadda , blanket set , vicky razai factory address , sofa cover price , pakistani lawn suits online sale

    ReplyDelete
  7. All K managers are composed of 20 managers who work and are high-quality educated managers. It is a place full of uniqueness differentiated from other companies. From the thoughts and perspectives of your customers, K's business trip massage
    Because it is an operational strategy, the satisfaction of managers is high, so if you believe and call me, thank you

    if you want more just look here "Ulsan Branch Massage"

    ReplyDelete
  8. A leading online gambling website, UFA affiliated with another website that is equivalent to a gambling website. That serves like a relative And is by your side 24 hours a day, making you feel safe and free from worry about fraud And also providing a full range of online gambling services, including lotteries, boxing, football betting, playing fish shooting games Play online baccarat Play online casino slots games which have high standards.

    if you want more just look here "UFABET888"

    ReplyDelete
  9. As experienced language service providers we are one of the established translation agencies in Germany. For over 30 years our customers have been benefiting from our professionalism and our high standards of quality in the fields of translation and interpreting.

    if you want more just look here "speak"

    ReplyDelete
  10. CBD is a short form of Cannabidiol. CBD introduced by William Brooke O’Shaughnessy in 1939 to American pharmacies. And it got popularity as a remedy for health problems. In recent times it gains popularity for its numerous health benefits. This oil is extracted from a tree called the cannabis Sativa plant.

    if you want more just look here "https://cbdoilfacts.tumblr.com/"

    ReplyDelete
  11. Purchase, sale of land, hotels, villas, resorts, businesses, shops, restaurants, bars, residential, commercial and other properties on Koh Rong Island and Koh Rong Samloem Island (aka Sihanoukville, Westport Islands) , Rental, Cambodia Islands). We serve clients, developers, tenants, landlords and investors from all over the world. We provide the following services: purchase, sale and lease of any real estate, real estate and investment consulting, operating documents and arrangements to purchase, lease, protect, lease real estate agreements, due diligence report on real estate you want to buy or lease, property rights application guide, Lawyer support, business and company registration guides, arranging an architecture and design team that suits your needs.

    if you want more just look here "kohrongre"

    ReplyDelete
  12. Nothing ruins your garden or yard like weeds, those uninvited guests who rob your plants of space and nutrients. So kill the weeds that are the worst, but without harmful chemicals that you can take care of too.

    if you want more just look here "Unkraut"

    ReplyDelete
  13. Looker is a data-discovery app that provides innovative data exploration functionalities for businesses both large and small. With it, they can access a web-based interface where they can easily get real-time insights on their operations via data analytics.

    if you want more just look here "Looker training"

    ReplyDelete
  14. eVisa India (electronic India Visa, which has the same privileges as Indian Visa) is valid only on the following designated Airports and Seaports for entering India. In other words, not all airports and seaports allow entry into India on eVisa India. As a passenger the onus is on you to make sure that your itinerary allows use of this electronic India Visa. If you are entering India form a land border, for instance, then this electronic India Visa (eVisa India) is not suitable for your journey.

    if you want more just look here "Intian viisumi"

    ReplyDelete
  15. Easily accessible by communication devices, both smartphones and computers. Access anywhere, anytime There are casino games to choose from, including fish shooting games, table games such as online slots, Pussy888, roulette or card games such as baccarat (baccarat) and many other games with special promotions, free credit. And so on

    if you want more just look here "pussy888"

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thank you for this article and very informative article. Wish to travel Turkey apply for e visa of turkey through online e visa application. The visitors need to fill online e visa application upload documents & photos, make online payment. Turkey is one of the world’s most popular tourism destinations. The rectangular-shaped country is surrounded on three sides by three different seas. Its shores are laced with beaches, bays, coves, ports, islands, and peninsulas. Turkey is also blessed with majestic mountains and valleys, lakes, rivers, waterfalls and grottoes perfect for winter and summer tourism and sports of all kinds. The maze of changing streets leads visitors along with terraced houses and popular sites like Deyrü’z-Zafaran Monastery, one of the oldest monasteries in the world, and the Sultan Isa Medresesi, a medieval monument that once served as an astronomical observatory. Throughout the Old City is a myriad of shops selling the likes of pottery, silverware, leather, and traditional crowns. Every famous place has some especially or we can say something unique. So you need e tourist visa india onlinr. That attracts the tourist to explore these places. If we see in Southeast Asia there is only country India where you can such immense diversity. The country is so diverse that when you first visit here, you will be amazed by Indian people's hospitality, street, very colorful markets, monuments, historical palaces, and much more.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I can only express a word of thanks! Nothing else. Because with the content on this blog you can add knowledge. Thank you very much for sharing this information.
    All foreign visitors can self request letter for visa extension india through the FRRO / FRO India Visa Renewal Service website / mobile app. This is a fully interactive process and you do not need to visit the FRRO / FRO office unless you receive a call from FRRO / FRO for some specific reason.
    In order to obtain an india visa extension covid, a foreign citizen must submit an online visa extension application. The application process for India Visa Extension is the same for all types of tourist visas including e-visas, regular visas and conditions of stay.

    ReplyDelete
  18. We don't publish fake deals or offers that don't work. We only publish real, working coupon codes. We are honest and authentic and shoppers love us for it.

    if you want more just look here "function of beauty coupon"

    ReplyDelete
  19. Natural Crystal Pens, Manifestation Tools, Affirmation, and Law of Attraction driven products.

    if you want more just look here "crystal pens"

    ReplyDelete
  20. Thanks for the amazing posts! I certainly liked reading this blog post, You are a great writer. I will definitely bookmark your blog and will come back often soon. you easily Obtaining a pakistan e visa is compulsory for all citizens, including holders of ordinary, special and service passports. pakistan electronic visa requirments the necessary supporting documents, border control officers will allow you entry. Processing time for pak visa online is a minimum of 3 to 5 working days and in some cases it may take to turkish visa longer than expected. but may apply pakistan visa from a third country if they are legal permanent residents of that country.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Great work... Wish to visit Saudi, then you should apply for Saudi Arabia evisa online and travel this beautiful place. Saudi Arabia’s southern region of Asir is a world away from the dusty capital of Riyadh. Summer rainstorms bring greenery to dramatic mountain viewpoints and local men wear fragrant crowns of flowers in their hair. Popular activities include hiking and touring the historic village of Rijal Alma. All applicants who apply for India evisa application( electronic visa) are firmly advised to carry a copy of their approved e visa document all the time during their stay in India.


    ReplyDelete
  22. Our Frenchie clothing are always made with organic hypoallergenic materials because French Bulldogs have allergies and sensitivities. Our Frenchie Bluenjy deserves the best and so is yours. Give your French Bulldog health conscious pet products made by an ethical brand.

    if you want more just look here "French Bulldog"

    ReplyDelete
  23. My classes were also full of only international students and my lecturers were all great at teaching in English. flat in Budapest

    ReplyDelete
  24. I conceive you have noted some very interesting points, regards for the post.
    ทางเข้าเว็บพนัน1XBET

    ReplyDelete
  25. What are the best sugar daddy websites for sugar babies finding a sugar daddy? What are the best sugar daddy sites for helping to get a sugar daddy free of charge? If you have asked questions like these,

    sugar daddy online free

    ReplyDelete
  26. The secret law of attraction dates back 5,000 years ago and it a natural law. It is not magic, but like magic and prays it is placing an intention to God or Universe to let them know what you want or need. It is a very powerful tool to change your life. You can bring yourself into perfect alignment with what you want or need. With the power of affirmations, visualization, and prays you to improve your life. The Secret Law of Attraction

    ReplyDelete
  27. Today, I was just browsing along and came upon your blog. Just wanted to say a nice blog and this article helped me a lot, due to which I found exactly what I was looking for.. Applying for Azerbaijan evisa is fast and easy and straightforward..

    ReplyDelete
  28. Nice post. Thank you for this work. The travelers need to apply visa for Kenya business visa through online visa application. Check the details and read the guidelines before you fill up the application form.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Great article this is really informative and innovative: with new updates.with new updates. It was really valuable. Thanks a lot. Travelers can easily apply online for evisa India. Thus the Government of India has provided an easy-to-use method to apply for visas through a simple online Indian visa application form.

    ReplyDelete
  30. i’m clearly enjoying the design and format of your web site. It’s a very clean at the eyes which makes it an awful lot greater best for me to come here and go to more frequently. Did you rent out a developer to create your subject? Excellent work! Thanks on your publish, i look for such article along time, these days i find it sooner or later. This publish supply me lots of propose it's miles very beneficial for me . Hiya, the whole thing is going sound right here and ofcourse every one is sharing statistics, that’s actually nice, preserve up writing. Such a completely beneficial article. Very thrilling to study this article. I would like to thank you for the efforts you had made for writing this incredible article. 먹튀검증업체

    ReplyDelete
  31. i’m just commenting to make you be privy to what a awesome stumble upon my buddy’s baby went through analyzing thru your weblog. She noticed such a lot of problems, which blanketed what it’s want to have an top notch coaching coronary heart to have ladies and men quite really completely grasp a diffusion of extremely tough topics. You certainly exceeded our personal expectations. I admire you for presenting the precious, reliable, informative and as well as cool pointers about that subject matter to emily. I precisely favored to thanks very a lot once more. I’m now not sure the things i should probable have finished inside the absence of those answers discussed via you concerning that subject. It turned into absolutely a completely frightful circumstance in my function, but thinking about the well-written technique you processed it took me to weep with contentment. I’m grateful for the provider and similarly have excessive hopes you are privy to a powerful job you are constantly putting in teaching the others through your web sites. Extra than possibly you've got never were given to realize all and sundry. 메이저사이트

    ReplyDelete
  32. this is an superb submit i visible way to percentage it. It's far really what i wanted to look wish in destiny you'll keep for sharing such a exceptional post . Of route, your article is good sufficient, but i concept it might be a good deal higher to peer expert images and movies together. There are articles and photographs on these topics on my homepage, so please visit and share your critiques. Your fashion is actually precise in assessment to different humans i have study stuff from. Many thanks for posting if you have the possibility, wager i’ll just bookmark this web web page. 바카라사이트

    ReplyDelete
  33. right right here is the proper weblog for all and sundry who desires to understand this topic. So much its nearly hard to argue with you (now not that i simply will want to…haha). You actually put a fresh spin on a topic which has been mentioned for a long time. Extremely good stuff, simply tremendous! Howdy! This post couldn’t be written any better! Analyzing via this put up reminds me of my previous roommate! He continuously kept speakme approximately this. I maximum surely will send this information to him. Quite sure he's going to have a very good read. Thanks for sharing! Hey! Do you use twitter? I would like to comply with you if that might be k. I'm surely enjoying your weblog and stay up for new updates. Precise submit. I analyze something definitely new and difficult on blogs i stumbleupon every day. It's always exciting to study content material from other writers and exercise a touch something from different web sites. 메이저사이트

    ReplyDelete
  34. hi, i do suppose your website online ought to likely be having browser compatibility issues. Each time i check your blog in safari, it looks first-class but, if beginning in internet explorer, it has some overlapping troubles. I simply desired to present you a short heads up! Other than that, brilliant website! Woah! I'm genuinely digging the template/subject of this internet site. It's easy, but effective. Quite a few times it is hard to get that "best balance" among high-quality usability and look. I must say you have executed a splendid task with this. Also, the blog masses extremely quick for me on safari. Super blog i weblog often and i surely respect your statistics. Your article has simply peaked my hobby. I can e-book mark your weblog and keep checking for brand spanking new details about as soon as a week. I subscribed to your feed as properly. 놀이터홍보

    ReplyDelete
  35. i had to create you a bit observation in order to say thanks plenty once more regarding the incredible guidelines you’ve mentioned right here. It's miles really unbelievably open-exceeded of you to supply brazenly simply what a number of us ought to probably have furnished for an ebook to come to be making a few money on their personal, maximum appreciably on the grounds that you can have attempted it in case you made a decision. Those standards further served to offer a terrific way to recognise that a few people have the identical ardour much like my own to know the truth a superb deal greater pertaining to this problem. I recognise there are some extra enjoyable possibilities in the future for many who see your blog. That may be a excellent tip in particular to the ones sparkling to the blogosphere. Simple however very accurate data thanks for sharing this one. A should study submit! 토토경비대

    ReplyDelete
  36. hi, i do think your internet site ought to possibly be having browser compatibility issues. Whenever i take a look at your internet site in safari, it looks satisfactory but, while commencing in internet explorer, it’s were given some overlapping issues. I sincerely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Aside from that, amazing blog! You’re so exciting! I do not think i’ve surely read something like that earlier than. So extremely good to discover another person with some particular mind on this topic. Severely.. Thanks for starting this up. This internet web site is one element that is needed on the internet, someone with a piece of originality! 스포츠토토

    ReplyDelete
  37. i had to compose you the little statement just to say thank you a lot once again about the placing critiques you’ve documented in this article. It’s quite seriously open-handed with you to supply brazenly simply what many people would possibly have marketed for an e-book to get a few earnings for themselves, particularly thinking about the truth that you may in all likelihood have accomplished it if you preferred. The ones points also served like an awesome manner to make sure that the relaxation have similar choice similar to my very personal to peer very a whole lot extra in phrases of this hassle. I am sure there are a lot extra pleasant classes up front for folks who check your blog. I am extraordinarily impressed together with your writing abilties and additionally with the format on your weblog. Is that this a paid topic or did you personalize it yourself? Either way maintain up the superb best writing, it's miles uncommon to peer a superb blog like this one in recent times.. I suppose other net web site proprietors need to take this internet site as an model, very easy and extremely good user genial style and design, not to mention the content material. You're an professional on this subject matter! 안전놀이터추천

    ReplyDelete
  38. this particular weblog is truly cool and informative. I've found many thrilling advices out of this source. I advert love to go back again soon. Thanks a lot ! You ave made some true factors there. I checked on the internet for additional information about the problem and observed most of the people will go together with your views in this internet site. This precise weblog is no doubt exciting and besides informative. I've picked a group of beneficial matters out of this blog. I ad love to go to it over and over. Thank you a gaggle! Simply wanna say that that is very beneficial , thank you for taking it slow to put in writing this. 토토디펜드

    ReplyDelete
  39. I perpetually visit your blog and retrieve everything you post here however I never commented however these days once I saw this post, i couldn’t stop myself from commenting here. nice mate! I can see that you are an expert at your field! I am launching a website soon, and your information will be very useful for me.. Thanks for all your help and wishing you all the success in your business. I just found your helpful blog and expected to express that I have really thoroughly enjoyed scrutinizing your blog passages. I will be your nonstop visitor, that is unquestionable. Thanks for all your help and wishing you all the success in your business. 메이저놀이터

    ReplyDelete
  40. a totally splendid weblog post. We are surely thankful to your blog put up. You'll find quite a few techniques after touring your put up. I used to be exactly attempting to find. Thank you for such submit and please preserve it u . I simply couldn’t escape from your net website earlier than suggesting that i virtually preferred the typical facts an character provide to your guests? Is probable to be all over again robotically to observe fresh articles a very super weblog post. We're sincerely grateful to your blog put up. You may find a number of methods after travelling your post. I used to be exactly searching for. Thank you for such publish and please keep it 파워볼사이트

    ReplyDelete